Iran has initiated a forceful counterattack on Tel Aviv, just as the dust had begun to settle on Israel\u2019s first round of strikes on Tehran, an operation to wipe out the Iranian regime’s nuclear capabilities. <\/p>\n
Tel Aviv residents were instructed to remain in bomb shelters Friday evening until further notice as the Israeli Defense Forces intercepted an onslaught of missile attacks from Tehran. <\/p>\n
The U.S. is left to wonder whether it will be drawn into the conflict. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at first insisted the American government was not involved in the strikes, but President Donald Trump\u2019s comments Friday suggest he didn\u2019t oppose them. <\/p>\n
Iran claimed that Israel\u2019s ‘aggression against Iran could not have been carried out without the coordination and approval of the United States.’<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
If Iran is acting rationally, it has no reason to provoke America into joining offensive attacks on behalf of its ally Israel.<\/p>\n
But what if it isn\u2019t? <\/p>\n
‘I hope and pray the Iranians don’t hit Americans but \u2026 it’s going to be very hard for the regime to not hit back and not hit back big,’ one former Pentagon official said. ‘All indications are they feel like they’re going to have to hit back hard.’<\/p>\n
Another analyst echoed that point but emphasized the emotional toll on Iran’s leadership. <\/p>\n
‘You’re talking about human beings who just watched their country get attacked, and a lot of their close advisors, confidants, probably friends get killed, right?’ said Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities. ‘That’s a tough thing for Iran to actually muster to do, but that’s clearly the right move for them strategically.’<\/p>\n
Iranians haven\u2019t been afraid to attack the U.S. before: they tried to kill Trump and his former advisors Mike Pompeo and John Bolton over the Qassem Soleimani assassination for years. <\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s ability to strike U.S. targets in the region is no secret: It has missiles and drones capable of reaching American bases in Iraq, Syria and the Gulf. And, as Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, noted, it has already demonstrated a willingness to use them.<\/p>\n
‘Iran has the ability to use its missile program and its drones to strike at the United States and its bases in the region and in Israel,’ Roman said. ‘It has threatened to do so.’<\/p>\n
But a bigger concern is sleeper cells \u2013 Iran\u2019s ability to operate through proxies even within the U.S. <\/p>\n
‘That\u2019s what I\u2019m most worried about,’ said Roman. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
‘Iran has demonstrated\u2026 that it has the capability to establish infrastructure here in the United States,’ said Joe Truzman, senior research analyst with FDD\u2019s Long War Journal. ‘Whether that\u2019s through agents they hire, a proxy force like Hezbollah, or sleeper agents\u2026 it\u2019s definitely a possibility.’<\/p>\n
A former Pentagon official pointed to Iran\u2019s massive missile arsenal \u2013 including more cruise and ballistic missiles than the U.S. has interceptors globally.<\/p>\n
‘If Iran really decides to throw in its missile force, \u2026 they could really do a lot of damage,’ one former official said. ‘Particularly in Iraq and Syria, where a lot of our smaller bases are not well defended \u2026 not covered by Patriots or THAADs.’<\/p>\n
Iran has a chokehold on Iraq\u2019s Shiite military forces: They are the regime\u2019s strongest proxy at the moment. The U.S. has around 2,000 forces stationed in Iraq to fight terrorism and this week evacuated non-essential embassy staff and their families from the embassy there.<\/p>\n
‘Iran may choose to direct its proxy forces in Iraq or Yemen to begin increasing pressure on the U.S. by attacking American targets,’ said Truzman, ‘to build up enough pressure to compel the U.S. to stop carrying out attacks.’ <\/p>\n<\/p>\n