{"id":1276,"date":"2025-03-15T16:00:30","date_gmt":"2025-03-15T16:00:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uscryptoinsiders.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/15\/spy-reverses-long-term-uptrend-with-outsized-move-now-what\/"},"modified":"2025-03-15T16:00:30","modified_gmt":"2025-03-15T16:00:30","slug":"spy-reverses-long-term-uptrend-with-outsized-move-now-what","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uscryptoinsiders.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/15\/spy-reverses-long-term-uptrend-with-outsized-move-now-what\/","title":{"rendered":"SPY Reverses Long-term Uptrend with Outsized Move \u2013 Now What?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>The weight of the evidence shifted to the bears over the last few weeks. First, the major index ETFs reversed their long-term uptrends with Bollinger Band signals, our breadth models turned net negative and yield spreads widened. This report will focus on the breakdown in the S&amp;P 500 SPDR (SPY), which represents the single most important benchmark for US stocks.<\/p>\n<p>The SPY chart below shows weekly candlesticks and the 40-week SMA, equivalent to the 200-day SMA. On the top right, we can see a break below support from the January low and a break below the 40-week SMA with an outsized decline. An outsized decline is an exceptionally sharp, deep decline that can derail an uptrend. As of Thursday&#8217;s close, SPY had fallen over 9% in 15 trading days, the largest 15 day decline since September 2022. This exceptionally strong selling pressure pushed prices below the demand line (support) and a key long-term moving average. Note that a similar break occurred in January 2022, which we <strong>covered in a report and video on Friday.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Large-caps are also starting to lag the broader market. The middle window shows the SPY\/RSP ratio breaking below its 40-week SMA for the first time since early March 2023. After outperforming for two years, large-caps (SPY) are underperforming the average stock in the S&amp;P 500 (RSP). SPY also started underperforming RSP in January 2022, which is when the 2022 bear market started.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>So now what? SPY became short-term oversold this week and ripe for a bounce. The broken support zone and underside of the 40-week SMA turn into the first resistance levels to watch (blue shading). We are now trading under a bear market regime so I would expect any bounce to fail in the 580 area.<strong><br \/><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Our reports and videos covered the following this week:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Six of the nine breadth-model indicators triggered bearish signals.<\/li>\n<li>Yield spreads widened as stress increased in the credit markets. <\/li>\n<li>Six major index ETFs triggered bearish Bollinger Band breaks. <\/li>\n<li>Precious and industrial metals ETFs extended on breakouts. <\/li>\n<li>Applying lessons from the 2022 bear market to the current situation. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><strong>Click here to take a trial and gain immediate access!<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The weight of the evidence shifted to the bears over the last few weeks. First, the major index ETFs reversed their long-term uptrends with Bollinger Band signals, our breadth models turned net negative and yield spreads widened. This report will focus on the breakdown in the S&amp;P 500 SPDR (SPY), which represents the single most [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1277,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stocks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/uscryptoinsiders.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1276","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/uscryptoinsiders.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/uscryptoinsiders.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uscryptoinsiders.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uscryptoinsiders.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1276"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/uscryptoinsiders.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1276\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uscryptoinsiders.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1277"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/uscryptoinsiders.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1276"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uscryptoinsiders.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1276"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uscryptoinsiders.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1276"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}